The share set at 1.2% from 2030 must gradually increase to reach 35% of fuels used by 2050. As a result of this requirement, the demand for green hydrogen will explode in Europe and the cost of air transport will increase significantly. But this will also lead to a race for synthetic fuels between the aviation sector and the heavy and maritime transport sector. Will there be enough energy for everyone?
LThe association Équilibre des énergies, chaired by Brice Lalonde, has published very detailed documentation entitled ReFuelEU Aviation and SAF (sustainable aviation fuels): we must now mobilise the necessary biomass and electricity resources. This paper assesses the European biomass and energy needs necessary to implement the ReFuelEU Regulation in different scenarios that could be followed to achieve its objectives. The paper explains that with the adoption of the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, the European Union has set a clear trajectory for the deployment of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), with a target of 70% SAF by 2050, of which 35% in the form of renewable fuels of non-biological origin.
Achieving these targets, the expected new developments in aircraft design and progress in traffic management will enable the aviation sector to end its dependence on fossil fuels. These targets are ambitious, especially as air transport is more difficult to decarbonise than sectors such as road transport or construction, but they can be achieved, as highlighted by the Commission’s impact assessments.
The priority now is to define an industrial strategy for the development of a SAF production capacity that can cover the needs of the European aviation sector in order to achieve the ReFuelEU objectives, without having to resort excessively to imports. Furthermore, it will be essential to ensure that this new European SAF industry remains competitive in terms of price in order to maintain a level playing field between EU and third country players.
Implementing this industrial strategy requires assessing the availability of resources needed to produce SAF and developing the infrastructure to produce and transport these resources – mainly biomass and low-carbon electricity – in the quantities and within the timeframes required by ReFuelEU.
Scenarios
The paper therefore examines the three scenarios in detail with the aim of determining the quantities of SAF required up to 2050 and the quantity of energy resources (biomass and electricity) that will be required.
These scenarios, based on a model developed by ONERA, are as follows:
– Scenario 1 (REFuelEU) corresponds to compliance with the trajectory of the REFuelEU regulation leading to 70% SAF in 2050 with a minimum of 35% synthetic fuels for aviation by this time frame.
– Scenario 2 (RefuelEU with e-BtL) pursues the same objective but relies much more largely on the development of the e-BtL sector, in order to limit biomass requirements.
– Scenario 3 (85% of SAF in 2050) takes up the assumption of 85% SAF in 2050, assuming that such a target will be necessary to achieve carbon neutrality in aviation. Like scenario 2, it relies heavily on the development of e-BtL.
These scenarios were applied to the EU area of 27 member countries. They take into account the forecast evolution of regional, short, medium and long-haul traffic and all the measures that will contribute to the reduction of CO emissions.2 :
– the renewal of current fleets by the acquisition of latest generation aircraft (based on the average lifespan of aircraft of 20 years);
– from 2035, the arrival of a new generation of aircraft to reduce emissions by 20 to 30%; optimization of operations (air traffic and airport operations);
– the emergence of hydrogen-powered aircraft (H2) from 2035/40; the incorporation of an increasing percentage of SAF.
The results of this assessment highlight the planning efforts that Member States should undertake, under the coordination of the Commission, in order to achieve the adopted objectives.
These results lead to the following recommendations according to the association:
– As regards biomass, given the limited resources available, scenarios associated with lower biomass consumption and increased electricity use should be favoured;
– The aviation sector should be prioritized for the use of biomass resources, as most other sectors have access to other solutions, such as direct electrification, for their decarbonization;
– To ensure that sufficient low-carbon electricity is available for the production of synthetic fuels, it is necessary to plan in advance the development of adequate production means, probably a mix of renewable energies and new nuclear capacities.
To know more : https://www.equilibredesenergies.org/09–10-2023-carburants-daviation-durables-saf-etude/
