France Hydrogène compared its prospective study “Hydrogen trajectory” published in 2021 with actual deployments and real projects in the different regions of France. Result: a potential that lives up to expectations, strong orientations towards e-fuels, but also a need for hydrogen production of all colors. Explanations.
EIn 2020, France committed to the development of decarbonized hydrogen with an ambitious national strategy. With 9 billion euros (€9 billion) of public support to get the industrial sector off the ground and deploy it across the country, it aims to deploy 6.5 GW of electrolysis by 2030 and thus avoid the emission of 6 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 per year.
In 2021, France Hydrogène published the study “Trajectory for a great hydrogen ambition” which broke down this strategy into two scenarios: the “Ambition 2030” scenario with a deployment of production capacities of 680,000 tonnes of renewable or low-carbon hydrogen and a second scenario “Ambition+ 2030” with a significant increase in these quantities to reach 1,090,000 tonnes of renewable or low-carbon hydrogen to meet the regulatory constraints of the Fit for 55 package. Seven large geographical basins have been identified, anchor points for a massive deployment where the pooling of production and uses would reduce costs.
Rreality confronted with foresight
In part 2 of the “Trajectory for a great hydrogen ambition”, published in December 2022, France Hydrogène compares the Ambition and Ambition+ prospective scenarios with the reality of the projects undertaken by manufacturers and communities in the regions. The study measures the deployment of the sector using the following indicators to date and up to 2030:
• Installed renewable or low-carbon hydrogen production capacities,
• The different uses of hydrogen (industry, energy, mobility),
• The state of the resources and limiting factors necessary for the exploitation of these capacities.
One of the strengths of this study is that it is based on a very large-scale data collection that allows it to stick to the reality of projects and achievements in December 2022. Indeed, thanks to its representativeness and its locations in all regions, France Hydrogène has carried out an unprecedented data collection in the 12 metropolitan regions, making it possible to bring back more than 250 projects and territorial ecosystems. The qualitative interviews organized with the regional delegations of France Hydrogène and the Regional Councils have enabled both the collection of data, but also their analysis and validation. The quantities displayed further on in the study cumulate projects whose statuses vary greatly in maturity and security, while some projects do not appear because they were confidential at the time of data collection.
France Hydrogène also used open sources for the different categories of data collected (reports and studies, regional and national observatories, regional master plans, etc.). Key parameters were studied at national and regional levels.
The uses of hydrogen
The projects identified total renewable and low-carbon hydrogen consumption of around 1,070,000 tonnes per year by 2030 in France, i.e. volumes higher than those of the objectives of the national hydrogen strategy and similar to those of the Ambition+ 2030 scenario. The main hydrogen consumption areas are concentrated around industrial basins and within the geographical “basins” defined by the 2021 study.
E-fuel: a key to decarbonization
In accordance with the 2021 scenarios, the decarbonization of the industry remains the preferred path to achieve a massification of hydrogen volumes, with in parallel a diffusion of mobility uses and the emergence of energy storage solutions in the sector, but with orders of magnitude as shown in the table below.
A focus on the segmentation of industrial uses highlights on the one hand “conventional” uses, such as refining or ammonia production, and reinforces the share of the steel industry. But one of the most striking differences with the prospective scenarios of 2021 is the considerable and new share in the production of synthetic molecules: more than half of the production of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen is consumed by projects aimed at the manufacture of e-fuels. These synthetic fuels are composed of hydrogen and carbon for e-kerosene for example, or of hydrogen, carbon and oxygen for e-methanols.
This production of synthetic hydrocarbons, in addition to its interest for mobility uses, also allows the capture of carbon from industrial processes, making the hydrogen sector all the more virtuous. Industries such as cement plants (attacked by environmentalists who are not very familiar with the latest technologies) can, with hydrogen, change their activity from high CO emissions2 to very low-carbon energy-producing activities by recovering carbon from processes for fuel production. And this is not about “green washing”, but about setting up a real sustainable economy. To achieve this, it would still be necessary to modify certain orientations of the Red III regulation, as we will see later.
|
Ambition scenario (in tH2/year) |
|
|
Refining |
50 000 |
|
other needs (e-methane, etc.) |
55 000 |
|
“Conventional” ammonia |
20 000 |
|
Steel industry |
250 000 |
|
Synthetic molecules |
425 000 |
|
Widespread industries |
12 000 |
|
e-methanol |
205 000 |
|
Industrial heat |
6 500 |
|
e-fuels such as SAF or e-kerosene |
165 000 |
|
Others (unspecified) |
51 |
|
Source: Trajectory for a great hydrogen ambition to 2030. |
Sustainable mobility
The study also shows that the m projectsmobility, particularly road, allow the development of hydrogen to be extended throughout the country. 225 hydrogen charging stations will open by 2025 in France with a minimum of ten stations planned in each region, generally around the main urban areas. Hydrogen mobility projects represent approximately 230,000 tonnes of H2 by 2030, or approximately 20% of production potential in France, in line with the estimates made in 2021.
With regard to rail uses, the commissioning of regional hydrogen trains is fully in line with territorial development, via non-electrified regional lines. The 14 Régiolis H2 trains ordered by 4 regions and deployed by 2025 will replace the trains currently running on diesel thanks to zero-emission solutions in use and with similar performance: total autonomy of 1,000 km, including 600 km thanks to 184 kg of H2 on board and a fuel cell system of around 300 kW.
For all maritime and river mobility, hydrogen and fuel cells can meet many needs and use cases, as demonstrated by the thirty or so projects identified throughout the country: propulsion of passenger shuttles, port ships or boats dedicated to inland navigation, but also dockside charging solutions. The solutions currently under development correspond to powers ranging from 200 kW to 2.5 MW, with several hundred kilograms of compressed or cryogenic hydrogen on board. There are still many technical and regulatory challenges.
As for the decarbonization of the aviation sector, this is a major issue for the sustainability of the sector. Even if the technical challenge is considerable, French aeronautics players are banking on several decarbonization levers, including hydrogen, whether for propulsion (turbojet or electric motorization powered by fuel cell), auxiliary or emergency on-board energy applications, or the substitution of kerosene with e-kerosene produced from renewable or low-carbon hydrogen..
Hydrogen territories
Hydrogen also has a role to play in energy uses. In particular, it represents a concrete solution to meet the flexibility needs of the electricity grid, but also for off-grid uses (local and autonomous energy loops, isolated sites, generators, backup systems, etc.). The segment corresponding to this use is poorly represented in the short and medium term in the projects collected as part of the study, but several experiments and demonstration projects are underway. The evolution of the energy context and the increasing integration of renewable energies in the French electricity mix could change the need in the short term, while hydrogen transport and storage infrastructures are developing.
The andIt is interesting to note that a real polarity appears in hydrogen production in France with, on the one hand, a large majority of projects below 3 MWeq (70% of all projects collected) and on the other, quantities of hydrogen produced mainly by projects above 100 MWeq (80% of all volumes, for only 24 projects). So these are either very small projects or very large projects, the small ones allowing a strong territorial network and the large ones helping to massify production.
Intermediate-sized projects, despite their relevance in terms of infrastructure pooling and scale effects, appear, at this stage, to be underprivileged. The increasingly high density of major projects as well as the structuring of territorial ecosystems confirm the gradual emergence of hydrogen “basins” as demonstrated in the study “Trajectory for a major hydrogen ambition 2021”.
The full study by France Hydrogène details the projects region by region, which gives an interesting idea of the hydrogen landscape of tomorrow. The strong deployment prospects are identified throughout France, with between 15 and 25 hydrogen production projects listed per region.
